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Earlier this week, US President Barack Obama identified Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia as the four places where terrorists were planning attacks against America. The inclusion of Yemen on that list should be of interest to Pakistanis, for the rise of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula could have direct bearing on our war against terror. Not only can we see many parallels between the two countries’ fights against militancy, but the international community’s involvement in Yemen – particularly that of Saudi Arabia and the US – could also have an impact on Fata-based militant networks.

Even before Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab – the Nigerian who tried to bring down a US airliner after spending time in Yemen – made headlines, there had been growing concerns about Al Qaeda consolidating its presence in the Arabian Peninsula. In December, Yemeni security forces, backed by US aid and intelligence, carried out two strikes on Al Qaeda hideouts in Yemen, killing over 60 militants. Raids of Al Qaeda camps closed out the year.

These initiatives by the Yemeni government come a year after militants based in Saudi Arabia and Yemen announced a merger to form Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in January 2009, declaring Yemen its base. According to Yemeni officials, there are up to 300 Al Qaeda operatives in the country, including about 85 Saudi Arabians who fled the kingdom’s armed campaign against terrorists between 2003 and 2006.

Initially, the government in Yemen tolerated Al Qaeda presence, and even released 170 detainees with suspected links to Al Qaeda in February 2009. Analysts believed the conciliatory move was an attempt to ward off attacks by Al Qaeda on Yemeni soil. But in August last year, a Yemeni suicide bomber managed to wound Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Nayef, who is in charge of Saudi Arabia’s counter-terrorism program. That attack, along with the Christmas Day US airliner plot, has thrown the spotlight on AQAP.

Security analysts think the resurgence of AQAP may be linked to the Pakistan Army’s operations against militants in South Waziristan and Bajaur agencies. Fata has long hosted foreign fighters – last year, reports circulated that there are up to 8,000 foreign fighters in Pakistan – many of whom are Arabs. During recent military operations, militants native to the tribal belt have been able to flee into Afghanistan or camouflage as IDPs and merge with the population of the Frontier province, resulting in the ongoing surge of suicide attacks. Arabs and other foreigners who are more conspicuous have, however, been forced to leave this region. Many have traveled to Yemen and Somalia to join local militant operations there.

It is for this reason that Pakistan should follow AQAP-related developments. A crackdown on Al Qaeda in Yemen could result in a reverse flow of militants back to this region – added incentive for our government and armed forces to secure those parts of the tribal belts that it claims to have flushed of terrorists.

And a crackdown is imminent. After Abdulmutallab’s plot was foiled, Obama vowed to accelerate the US offensive against terror cells in Yemen. Right-wing hawks are already calling for pre-emptive action against AQAP in Yemen. Throughout 2009, the US has provided US$ 67 million worth of intelligence, surveillance and training to Yemeni forces under the Pentagon’s counterterrorism program, an amount second only to Pakistan.

Until now, the Yemeni government has cooperated quite well with the US in targeting AQAP, despite public outrage at the possibility that the US could have conducted December’s military strikes and raids against militant hideouts (both governments insist that US involvement is restricted to training and intelligence). If the Obama administration continues to enjoy cooperation from the Yemeni government – which has, in recent weeks, expressed unambiguous willingness to target AQAP – Washington could put pressure on Islamabad to commit to a similar crackdown against Pakistan-based militants planning attacks on US soil or other foreign targets.

Saudi Arabia’s involvement in pursuing AQAP in Yemen could also impact Pakistan’s war against terrorism. The kingdom is aware that a stronger Al Qaeda along its border could result in more terror attacks on Saudi soil. Already, the Saudi armed forces have launched artillery attacks against Yemeni rebels called Houthis, followers of the Zaidi sect of Shia Islam (Riyadh has alleged that the Houthis have ties to Iran and links to Al Qaeda and are hellbent on destabilising the peninsula). In previous months, the Houthis have attacked Saudi border guards and soldiers, kidnapping or killing them.

Although there is little evidence of links between Al Qaeda and Houthi rebels, it is acknowledged that AQAP is taking advantage of the unrest along the Saudi-Yemen border to take root in the area. To protect is own interests, Saudi Arabia may well extend its strikes against Houthis to AQAP hideouts as well.

Moreover, analysts believe that the consolidation of AQAP presence in Yemen could motivate Saudi Arabia to systematically address the issue of terror financing. For years, it has been reported that individuals and charities based in Saudi Arabia are a primary source of funding for Al Qaeda. A Council on Foreign Relations report explains that many Saudis fund terror unknowingly because “terror groups collect funds under the guise of Islamic charities and schools.”

If the threat of a robust Al Qaeda presence in the Arabian Peninsula moves Riyadh to better monitor Saudi charities, thereby curbing terror financing, Pakistan will certainly reap the benefits. After all, there can be no defeating Fata-based militants until their financing is permanently cut off. Ultimately, by dragging Saudi Arabia into the community of nations worried about militant attacks on its soil, AQAP’s resurgence in Yemen has indirectly affected the future course of Pakistan’s push against militancy in this region.